HurricaneHub blog
Learn what the National Hurricane Center cone really represents, how the new NHC impact map changes the picture, and how to use both with watches, warnings, and storm surge maps.
Published 2026-08-07 · Last modified 2026-08-13
The cone is a visualization of forecast-track uncertainty. It is drawn so that the center of the storm is expected to remain inside the cone roughly two-thirds of the time, based on historical forecast errors. It is not a representation of the storm's size, impacts, or warning area.
Many people misread the cone and assume only the areas inside it are at risk. In reality, hazards can extend far outside the cone.
Use the cone as one input among several. If your location is inside or near the cone, begin monitoring NHC advisories and local NWS alerts closely. If the cone shifts toward your area, move from preparation to action. If the cone shifts away, continue watching until the storm has passed, because cones can move back.
Starting May 15, 2026, the National Hurricane Center pairs the cone with an experimental-to-official impact map (also called the cone of concern). The impact map keeps the track cone but overlays color-coded watches and warnings for inland wind, storm surge, and flooding. It answers a different question than the cone: not just where the center may go, but where dangerous conditions are expected. Read the impact map first for safety decisions, then use the cone to understand how much the track can still shift.
The cone of uncertainty should be read alongside the storm surge watch/warning graphic, the rainfall forecast, the wind-field map, and the official discussion. Each product answers a different question: where, how high the water, how much rain, and how strong the wind.
Before making a life-safety decision, check weather.gov, your local emergency management agency, and current NHC advisories. NOAA/NESDIS and NASA images in this article are public-domain source visuals.
Use the article for background, then move to the tracker, alert, city, or planning page that matches your current situation.
Translate watch, warning, surge, flood, tornado, and evacuation wording into household actions.
Check current NHC storm context, live map shortcuts, radar, and active alert pathways.
Move from general guidance to local storm surge, flooding, route, outage, and alert context.
Compare a ZIP code with current NHC storm positions and understand distance limits.
No. The cone only represents uncertainty in the forecast track of the storm's center. Wind, rain, surge, and tornadoes can affect areas well outside the cone. Always follow local watches and warnings.
Forecast uncertainty increases with time. The National Hurricane Center bases the cone width on the average track error of past forecasts at 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours. Later forecast periods have larger possible errors, so the cone widens.
The cone shows where the storm center is likely to track. The NHC impact map (official since May 15, 2026) overlays watches and warnings for wind, storm surge, and flooding, so it shows where dangerous conditions are expected rather than just where the center might go. Use the impact map to make safety decisions and the cone to understand track uncertainty.
The center line represents the single best estimate of where the storm center will go, but it is not more likely than nearby points inside the cone. Impacts can occur on either side of the line.